空间物理专业学术报告

Active regions are examined to identify features capable for false and CME diagnostics and assessment of the associated risks. In particular, we focus on sunspot data available from the SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Sunspot Data Catalogue (SDD) and the SDO/HMI Debrecen Sunspot Data Catalogue (HMISDD). We introduce a new measure, the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (WG_M) that is applied to forecast flare onset time, flare intensity and even CME associated with some flares. Further, we elaborate on results when testing our method on an emerging artificial active region. Remarkably, applying the method has shown unexpected results.

Therefore, this new measure allows us to track the free energy content of an active region and provides a novel, reliable and excellent forecast tool that may be applicable to other solar eruptive phenomena, from tiny flares to large CMEs, for achieving a more accurate Space Weather warning.