大气科学前沿论坛 第六十二期
报告地点：教学行政楼708会议室
报告时间：2024年8月30日 9:30
报告人：Baoxiang Pan, PhD
报告人简介：
Baoxiang Pan is currently an associate research scientist at Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-CAS). He obtained his PhD from University of California, Irvine. Before joining IAP, he was a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Lab. His research interest is to combine probabilistic machine learning with process models for better forecast across scales.
报告题目：GAP: generative assimilation and prediction for weather and climate
报告内容简介
Weather forecast cares about plausible weather trajectories given incomplete knowledge of current weather status and imperfect forecasting models. Climate prediction cares about climate variability as revealed by a group of imperfect models, under various forcing scenarios. The distinction results from chaotic nature of geophysical fluid dynamics, putting a limit on weather predictability, endorsing climate prediction its in-deterministic nature, and leaving in between a battle field of predictability signal v.s. internal variability noise at subseasonal to seasonal scale. We break this long-standing distinction between weather forecast and climate prediction by quantifying the probabilistic distribution of climate state given observational and predictive constraints, using deep generative model. We demonstrate the unique advantage of this methodology for data assimilation, seamless forecast, and climate simulation.