固体地球物理学术报告通知—王永飞

It is still challenging to fully mitigate seismic hazards due to big epistemic uncertainties on how often a damaging earthquake can occur (short-term and long-term earthquake forecast) and how strong ground motions generated will be. Dynamic earthquake ruptures in interseismic and coseismic period are feasible to provide 1) insights of dominant causative factors of occurred earthquakes (e.g., fault geometry, on-fault constitutive law) 2) physics-based constraints on numerical earthquake forecast and ground-motion models, 3) and supplements of near-fault (<10 km) ground-motion data that are severally lacked in the current ground-motion databases. Since two decades ago, SCEC has been making efforts to promote physics-based earthquake dynamics in long-term earthquake forecast model of RSQSim that are based on the rate-and-state friction in the complex fault system in Southern California (SCEC CFM) and dynamic ground-motion validation of TeraShake and Plastic-Terashake (SCEC CVM) in place of existing kinematic 1D/3D ground-motion validations (BBP and CyberShake). Among research priorities of SCEC, “Beyond elasticity”, “Complex fault geometry”, “Static- and dynamic stress transfer in coseismic and interseismic periods” and “Unified earthquake simulator incorporating many SCEC community models over short- and long-term periods” are particularly beneficial to systematic application of dynamic ruptures in seismic hazard forecast and analysis.